The U.K. is currently enduring a painful third wave of COVID-19, far worse than its European neighbors like Spain, France, Italy and Germany. (The Republic of Ireland currently has the world’s highest number of confirmed new COVID-19 cases per capita.) On Wednesday Jan. 13, the U.K. reported a record high of 1,564 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test—the biggest figure reported in a single day since the pandemic began, bringing total deaths to more than 84,000.

Experts say that the current situation in the U.K., and particularly in London—which declared a state of emergency on Jan. 8 is a cautionary tale. They say the crisis is a result of both the struggle to deal with a new variant estimated to be up to 70% more transmissible, and because of a failure in decisive and strong government leadership.

One of those failures, they say, was that the U.K. government did not act on the scientific advice that recommended a short “circuit breaker” lockdown in September to halt rapidly rising transmissions after the easing of lockdown restrictions in the summer. Although a second round of national restrictions were introduced in November, it was eased in December and cases rapidly climbed throughout the month. On Jan. 4, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a third national lockdown in England, with people only allowed to leave their homes for a select few reasons and non-essential shops and businesses closing. (Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland each have their own healthcare rules and have also instructed national lockdowns).

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